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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, continue.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.